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Moses Mosop Goes For Glory At 2012 Rotterdam Marathon Versus Marathon Newcomers
By Emory Mort
April 11, 2012
(Editor's note: LetsRun.com Employee #1 Emory Mort previews
the 2012 Rotterdam Marathon below. In February, LetsRun sent Mort to
Kenya to participate in the IAAF's Day in the Life project and he shares
some of the wisdom gleaned from that trip here. Mort spent twenty days
in Kenya and many days with the sport's biggest stars, including 800m
world record holder David Rudisha, double world champ Vivian Cheruiyot, World and Olympic 1,500m medallist Asbel Kiprop, world marathon record
holder Patrick Makau, double marathon world champ Abel Kirui, 2:03:42 man Wilson Kipsang, London champ Emmanuel Mutai, and coach Renato Canova,
among others. Part 1 of the series is below previewing the men's side
of the Rotterdam Marathon and looking at Moses Mosop. While the IAAF
paid for portions of Mort's trip, they had no say on the article below.)
Previously In This Series: Prologue: 8 Days For Glory - A Kenya-Flavored Preview Of The Upcoming Men's Marathon World Record Assault
2:03:06 For Mosop In Boston
While in Kenya in February getting the scoop on the
six-man chase for Kenya's three Olympic marathon spots, one thing was
made clear to me from talking to
Moses Mosop's coach
Renato Canova:
because Moses elected not to run a "major" marathon in the spring,
evading head-to-head competition
with the other five pre-selected men in London and Boston, the world
record must be attempted on the streets of Rotterdam. According to "Mr.
Renato Canova," as he is referred to affectionately by some on the
LetsRun boards, if Mosop achieves the world record, he's on the team. If
not, he's out. Talk about pressure.
Unfortunately for Mosop, according to online weather forecast from
wunderground.com,
Sunday's temperature (40s) and precipitation (0%) look good for
Rotterdam, but winds are expected to register 20-25
mph. Unlike Boston, Rotterdam is not point-to-point ... these won't be
strictly side- or tailwinds. Perhaps the running fan will dejectedly
stop reading here. Perhaps this spells doom for Mosop's Olympic hopes.
The record attempt, which has all the proper ingredients, looks highly
unlikely. Or perhaps we shouldn't be so easily swayed ...
It's hard to believe that a man who ran his first marathon in
2:03:06 - in Boston no less - and his second
a course record in Chicago, separated
by a powerful 30,000m
world record in Oregon, could have such a
Sword of Damocles
dangling over his Olympic chances. In any other country, he is the
G.O.A.T. (greatest of all time), but such are the times in Kenyan
running that he's gotta keep fighting. Perhaps weather will ruin Mosop's
chances.
But weather isn't the only factor, and as we all know, a
lot can change in a weather forecast. According to what I've researched,
studies by high-level scientists have found that on events such as
college graduation days, where thousands
of people hope for sunny weather, there appears to be a correlation
between the hopes of the participants and the weather outcome ...
perhaps a "unified front" of running fans can alter the gusty "weather
front"? Even given more favorable conditions, might Mosop be outrun by
eager half-marathoning sensations
Sammy Kitwara,
Stephen Kibet or
Peter Kirui? With Rotterdam fewer than a handful of days away, let's look at the weather, the rabbits, the training, the background and
the prognostications swirling around
Mosop's hopes.
Moses Mosop's Potential: "Moses has speed that has never been seen."
Starting on March 8, a thread popped up on the LetsRun.com boards that caught my attention:
With
predictions ranging from 2:05 to 2:02, and debate about just how good Moses Mosop is, the anonymous poster
"oh please" attempted to diminish the chatter: "I'd like to see what (Renato) Canova has to say, and I'll go with that."
Mr. Canova has a lot to say on Moses. Amidst
the perpetual sunny February days in equatorial Iten, Renato beamed.
"Moses has speed that has never been seen. The other day he ran 30k in
the morning. Later that day, he ran another 15k. Both runs were
extremely fast. He can train at speeds that have never been seen."
Still
months away from competition, the coach of many of Kenya's current
podium-topping marathoners who made his name as the country-hopping
coach of world-record-setting and nationality-switching 7:53
steeplechaser
Saif Shaheen continued, "For Moses, because he's
not running a major and the other guys are, either he breaks the world
record or he's not going to the Olympics. He will try for the world
record and we have a very good pacer for him; this is very important.
100% the world record is in their
possibility
with good tarmac and good conditions."
Another comment from the
message board thread on Mosop's WR chances from
"semiparis" brings
up a potential reservation about Mosop's fitness several weeks after I
talked with Renato: "well he ran 62 mins at the weekend in paris (on
March 4) ... so unless he had a really really bad day ... WR is
unlikely."
This mathematically-sound argument is weakened when one looks back to 2011, when Mosop ran 2:03:06 in Boston, barely losing to
Geoffrey Mutai,
about a month after running a nearly identical 61:47
in Paris. In 2011, Mosop's 61:47 didn't raise any eyebrows. In 2012, a
62:00 has people doubting his fitness, especially compared with
competitors running 58s. Moses has the better marathoning résumé, but
it's undeniable that based on 2012 results, his competitors in Rotterdam
are in much better half marathon shape. Unlike Moses, they need half
marathon paydays. With a big enough performance on marathon day, Moses
has no such concerns.
Let's look at details: On 4 March, just before the LRC
thread
was started, Mosop tested his fitness by running 62:00 in the Paris Half
Marathon, hardly looking good against his Rotterdam competitors, let
alone comparing to the WR. In contrast, Rotterdam entrant
Peter Kirui ran 59:39 to win a highly competitive NYC Half in hilly Central Park, entrant
Stephen Kibet ran a 58:54 zinger on Mar 11 at the CPC, and long-time road ace
Sammy Kitwara ran
the Philly Half in 58:48 late in 2011, to become the fourth fastest at the time (for more on Sammy see:
Sammy Kitwara - The Best Runner You've Never Heard Of).
Just this week, Renato rekindled my interest in Kitwara,
whose marathon aspirations were on the minds of many during my stay.
"I'm also curious to see how Sammy Kitwara can compete," Renato wrote,
"He was in training with me and the leading group in Iten from the
beginning of November, was very serious in training, but can have still
some problem with the full distance. However, he shows all the
qualities for becoming in one year an athlete able to run under
2:03:00."
Running fans, these are the suggestions from Mr. Canova
himself in Kenya: within one year, and perhaps
already, expect
more than a handful of Kenyans to be prepared to run under 2:03.
Kitwara, yet to finish a marathon, is one of them. Seeing the future in
exact detail? Much more difficult.
Based on the recent half marathon results,
and given his own rapid ascension to the top, Mosop might look like an
over-hyped favorite. That is, until one realizes that unlike the other
three runners, Mosop has notched two stellar marathon performances, plus
a 30,000m WR, in three tries. Assuming training is going well, and
conditions cooperate, the fact
that Moses is virtually assured competition and/or rabbiting through
30-35k bodes well for taking a shot at his second record-breaking time,
this one in the far grander event. From the looks of things, Canova has
his fingers on the pulse of Kenyan marathoning and the 62:00 half
marathon, perhaps, can be written off as a training day for weary-legged
Mosop, who after 2011 should have to prove his half marathon wheels to
no one.
Rabbits, Strategy And Pacing - What To Expect From Rotterdam After Boston Redefined The Marathon
Canova,
who will head to Rotterdam on Friday after sewing up his final workouts with World Champion
Abel Kirui
(running London next Sunday), says the 2011 Boston Marathon was a game
changer, that it redefined what is possible in the marathon. Sensing
favorable conditions on Patriot's Day 2011, the coach said he asked both
Geoffrey Mutai and Moses Mosop to remove their watches and run free
from previous limits. Aided by an inspired free-running clinic put on by
eventual 2:04 finisher
Ryan Hall, Mosop and
Mutai put all
previous boundaries behind them and did the unthinkable.
How will the elites attack the Rotterdam
course in 2012? "[Moses] doesn't need any watch," Renato wrote on April
10, "pacemakers need the watch! We have two top pacemakers:
Jonathan Maiyo (till 27k, but maybe he can arrive at 30k - he will try to better the WR of 25 km on 6.05 in Berlin) and
Geoffrey Kipsang, probably till 32k. We need for a pace of 29'10" every 10k, of course if the weather conditions are okay (I fear the wind)."
29'10"
every 10k adds up to 58'20" at 20k, 1:56:40 at 40k, and around 2:03-flat
for the full 42.2 km. But wind and cool temperatures, obviously, could
alter this ambitious proposal. Another interesting note that illustrates
the depth of Kenyan marathoning and the importance of this world record
is that pacesetter Jonathan Maiyo ran 2:04:56 in his debut marathon in
January in Dubai.
The synced-up collaborative effort between
teammates in Rotterdam may spur the runners to greatness. This is an
effect that
some might not notice, but it is very powerful. Mosop, Maiyo, Kipsang
and Kitwara, at least, are all on some level guided by the Canova
wizardry, all pulling for each other while also pulling for themselves.
As they run in a pack, they are individuals but somewhat unified in
purpose. They are competing but from common ground, like competing
armies who used to fight during the day and dine together around the
evening campfire. If Moses breaks the record, they all benefit. If
Kitwara runs very well, perhaps even
winning or coming close, Moses will also benefit from an increased
performance. If the rabbits run better than expected, again a similar
beneficial group effect. This is an advantage of having a prominent
runner pick a slightly less prestigious race, because here he can call
the shots and set it up where he basically gets to fly around the course
with "his crew." Imagine, USA fans, if Ryan Hall (essentially equal on
time to Maiyo) was rabbiting a few higher-profile Stanford grads (you
know, a number of 2:03 types) who share his coach around the Chicago
course. This is essentially what's going on here ... very cool and a
very interesting phenomenon to study in terms of the powerfully
synergistic group dynamics.
Moses Racing In Kenya
Recent Training - How Has Moses Looked?
In February, Renato raved about Moses' training ability. Recently I
asked the coach how things have gone since then and after the 62:00 in
Paris. Keep in mind that Moses is training at significant altitude
in Ngong (6,400 ft to 7,900 ft). Renato's reply:
"Moses
had some good training and during the last 2 weeks tried to make his
legs more fresh. We didn't have any tough workout, using mainly fartlek
sessions (the model was (a) 21 km (run) with (the 1st) 10k
(featuring) 2' fast alternated with 1' moderate + 10k with 1' fast / 1'
moderate + 1 final km very fast). He ran the best in 1 hr 05' with last
km in 2'42"."
The one problem, Renato said, is the wind,
both in training and in the upcoming race. In training, the recent high
winds have made the efforts very hard on Mosop's
body. Of course 25mph winds on Sunday will ruin the runners' chances at a
very fast time.
After Mosop's incredible spring with his
2:03:06 John Hancock Boston debut and the 30k world record in the at Pre
(a phenomenal effort where he ran a 2:08 800m to secure the win over
new Canova charge Abel Kirui and another 2:08 to finish the race),
Moses had a tumultuous summer and autumn. A relationship breakup, a
move, and training that was far from 100% not
just physically but psychologically, left
Mosop 80-85% heading
into Chicago according to Canova. Amazingly, Mosop still left Chicago
with Sammy Wanjiru's course record. With such a string of top
performances in 2011, Mosop seems to have the magic touch necessary to
get to the top of a brutally tough field, and stay there. Wanjiru was at
the top of the marathoning ranks for a couple of years, Mosop gets the
chance Sunday to attempt the same, starting in Rotterdam.
Sammy Kitwara
Can Athletics Kenya Get Put On The Hot Seat?
In his
informative blog entry published several weeks ago, commentator
Toni Reavis sums up the Rotterdam competition well:
"With Peter Kirui and Mosop meeting up
in Rotterdam April 15th along with debuting half-marathon monster Sammy
Kitwara (58:58 PR) and Stephen Kibet, what happens if Kirui, Kibet, or
Kitwara knock one out
of the park? Since Athletics Kenya is less than reliable when it comes
to sticking with its public statements regarding Olympic selection (Ibrahim Hussein Clarifies Kenya's Olympic Marathon Selection)
all the athletes can do is put their officials behind the eight-ball,
between a rock and hard place, or any other conundrum producing metaphor
by performing in a manner which compels
AK to bow to the excellence exhibited."
Reavis makes a great point by pointing out
Kirui and Kibet, but he forgets one thing. Starting with the positive:
Peter Kirui, whom I haven't mentioned much here other than his
recent NYC Half win,
has flirted with records before, helping Makau and Kipsang to sub-2:04s
last year (in one case finishing in a jog with a 2:06). The problem
with Reavis' argument is that selectors forced to explain why they
aren't picking someone like Sammy Kitwara for the London Olympics can
say
Rotterdam isn't a major. If Kitwara, for example, beats Mosop but
doesn't get the world record perhaps because of the wind - while still a
highly impressive performance, it's "only" a Rotterdam win. It's not
London or Boston and whoever wins those races will have more career
marathon success than Kitwara. And Kitwara's also an interesting
hypothetical because he has clashed with Kenyan selectors before,
getting booted off a Worlds 10,000m team for running too many road races
(given the lack of money in the 10,000m, perhaps
Kitwara
should write them a thank you note). But I agree there will be debate,
and plenty of it.
All I can really say is something Canova pointed out in
Iten: "I don't want to be in the clothes of the Kenyan selection
committee." Surely they don't want Canova in their clothing, either. But
if they make the right call, they should be looking pretty sharp in
some fine threads come London 2012. Pardon the pun ... "time will tell."
Weldon Johnson and Robert Johnson contributed to this article from LRC headquarters.
Much more to come on an incredible 8 days of Marathon
that starts Sunday in Rotterdam, continues Monday in Boston, and ends
the next Sunday in London.
